The US Department of Commerce Census Bureau has released its monthly retail sales data for July and quarterly E-Commerce data for Q2, providing a complete picture of the performance of various commerce categories in the US. This allows us to compare industry-wide results with the individual performances of public retailers currently reporting their Q2 earnings.
Overall, the US Commerce industry is very close to industry averages. Core Retail (which excludes automobiles, gas, and restaurants) has grown by 3.1% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. For the decade preceding the Covid pandemic, Core Retail grew at an average of 3% annually, indicating a return to traditional growth patterns.
E-Commerce has grown by 7.5% in the first half of 2024, now representing 22% of Core Retail sales for the year. Notably, E-Commerce accounts for 50% of all Core Retail growth. While the current growth rate is slower than the pre-pandemic average of 13.5% per year, E-Commerce remains the primary growth engine for US Retail. For those who viewed the Covid-driven surge in E-Commerce as temporary, it’s worth noting that E-Commerce sales in 2024 are more than twice as large as in 2019, up 117% from the first six months of 2019.
The real story of 2024, however, is the widening divide between retail’s winners and losers. While overall retail grew by 3.1%, the two largest US retailers—Walmart and Amazon—experienced significantly higher growth. Additionally, three emerging retailers—Temu, Shein, and TikTok Marketplace—are seeing remarkable growth, leaving little room for the rest of the retail market. To thrive in retail in 2024, a retailer needs a vast assortment, a compelling value proposition for price-conscious consumers, and excellent execution.
Lastly, it helps to be in the categories that consumers are still shopping for. It’s been a strong year for general merchandise, (value oriented) apparel, and food. It’s been a tough year for electronics, hardware, sporting goods, and furniture stores.
Download the Publicis Commerce Data Compendium to gain a deeper understanding of the current retail landscape.
